In a previous project called AGILE where I acted as a project manager, we looked at the social and commercial benefits of GNSS enabled phones.
The point of the project in a nutshell was to promote Galileo applications, or at least provide a useful insight into the business case for Galileo applications.
The project focused on the mobile handset side of things and before moving onto the subject of this post I thought that I would review some of the conclusions and output from the project, even though the project finished only last year the market moves fast. At the time the project finished the Nokia N95 had only just been released and Nokia had just announced the tie up between themselves and the digital mapping company Navteq.
So lets look at some predictions from the project at the time.
Estimating the size of the GNSS handset market.
So at the end of 2005 the number of mobile subscribers grew to 2.129 billion an increase of about 384 million from the start of the year , this figure is expected to increase to around 3964 billion by the end of 2011 (Source CMS info)
In the same time the population of the world will reach around 7 billion, meaning that if we were to believe the figures and at current growth of mobile phone penetration we can, round about the end of 2009 we should see mobile phone penetration passing the 50% mark.
That in short is a lot of mobile phones!
I won’t go into the details of this number, the project did break this figure down by market and region but that is too much for this post.
The next snippet of information from the AGILE is the number of these phones that will have a GNSS capability, and again without going into how the figures were obtained too much, but mostly from combining several sources of analyst data.
The project estimated that by the end of 2020 the number of phones with a satellite positioning capability could reach 1 billion units, my impression is that this number will be exceeded quite easily.
So where is the iPhone in all of this, well the number of iPhone sold is small when compared to Nokia’s 40% market share but the key thing about the iPhone as with most Apple products is the ease of use and integration with Apple’s iTune store.

The AGILE project, the project looked at some of the GNSS application that users would most like to see was that over 50% of users most want mobile mapping and traffic information services, the project also predicted that there would be a growth in the next 2 to 3 years of.
- Strong move towards usage/content segmentation with an increasing number of POI’s and services proposed
- Increasing desire for seamless navigation experience across
- multiple “location aware ” device
So lets turn our attention to the iPhone, Apple’s application store which is an open development platform provides us with a snapshot of the integration of travel applications and a GNSS enabled handset, currently its the first to do this in this way although T-Mobile will launch something similar in Nov.
The killer application/s for iPhone is expected to be location based services, which for someone who has been in this industry for a while it is pleasing to note that this will soon be realised.
The reason the LBS seems to be high on the wish list is that in the first weekend of opening the Apple application store there was over 10 million downloads, startup companies and rushing in to develop LBS applications amongst the raft of social networking applications already available.
On apple’s own website for iPhone apps under the travel application category there are currently as of writing 182 travel applications for the USA, while not the highest number for a category it is still impressive, we can then look at how popular the travel applications are by a click of a button in the actual iTunes program, it is difficult at this point to get good data as the itunes stores are filtered by country but we can do a very unscientific poll by looking at each country in turn.
In France, Germany and the UK traffic information, metro maps, and mapping applications are always in the top ten of applications along with guide me applications for cities around Europe. In the USA we see traffic and mapping applications reflecting the choices in Europe.
Now I know that I’m building an opinion based on my subjective evaluation of the i-Tune’s store, but the wish for information on traffic, metro, next bus times is quite high. People it seems want this information and in the absence of a unified system they are currently building themselves a selection of applications that deliver their needs.
Mapping with one application, bus times with another, traffic cameras and information with another, hotel booking and searching with one more. Not exactly seamless but at the price for an application being in the few Euros people can afford to do this.
Sometimes it is a struggle I feel, to get the i-Travel concept over to people but its exactly the example of many different applications being needed that we are trying to address, in the USA you can buy a next bus application which is great if you are in certain cites not so good in another where there is no information and what if the traffic network is jammed on the bus route? You would have to use the traffic information from another application and compare it against the bus route.
These are still vertical silo implementations, which is exactly the reason i-travel has been formed to offer an integrated solution.
Our solution to the problem is not to tie all the apps together through use of software, but to bring the traffic information providers, public transport providers and navigation companies together and operate under a single architecture and standard to interface with a digital travel assistant on your mobile phone.
This group of companies would operate under an eMarketplace that has an open architecture with digital rights management, billing and security. Such an organisation to support a multi modal travel journey is not currently a reality.
Under the Apple iPhone developer conditions it is unlikely that there will be any progress towards bringing together several applications to provide a seamless assistant as Apple restrict the application developers from talking to one another when they sign up to the develop platform.
While this does mean that there are lots of applications for travel it means that people are forced to use several to get all the information for a seamless journey. This is not in the interests of the traveller nor is it in line with the efforts of organisations like ERTICO who are promoting open architecture and travel without walls.
The experience of iPhone does give us a good indication on the type of information and applications that people want for mobile travel programs, but the development of a single marketplace is something that is still missing, i-Travel is not about building services as developers in the Apple application store are producing, but we are building the structures to enable services to operate seamlessly together, which is not happening currently.
We started this post looking at the penetration of GNSS mobile phones and went on to look at the travel applications being developed for such phones, it is clear to me that location based travel services will be a reality but the operation of these application together is something that is still missing and this is what the i-Travel consortium is all about.
Seamless travel can only be realised when people providing the services operate under a single standard and architecture, then several iPhone applications could be used together to offer the traveller all the information that they need to get from A to B.